Teleconnections are remote associations. What happens on one side of the planet can have an effect on the other side. One example is El Niño, one of the weather phenomenas of tropical origin caused by the abnormal warming of the waters of the Pacific Ocean, producing drought in northeastern Brazil and heavy rains in southern Brazil, among other effects.
Another example of teleconnection goes back to the origin of El Niño: the cause of the phenomenon - the warming of the western Pacific - may be related to the warming of the Indian Ocean.
Second José Marengo, researcher at the Earth System Science Center of the National Institute for Space Research (INPE), the identification of teleconnections and the analysis of their influence on atmospheric circulation can be useful for understanding the occurrence of anomalous events in various parts of the world.
"Teleconnections are associated with natural causes and not anthropogenic influence. In a time phase of 100 years old, different oscillation patterns can be observed, with effects on the climate of a certain region, as or El Niño, the Pacific Decanal Oscillation and the North Atlantic Oscillation. we are living, for example, a cooler period of the Pacific Ocean, with the Atlantic playing a more important role", Marengo said, who is a member of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), at the Ocean-Continent Interrelations Symposium in the Global Change Scenario, conducted by the Brazilian Academy of Sciences (ABC) in October.
Recent studies show that El Niño has different facets. By analyzing the phenomena that occurred between 1900 e 2012, the group led by Edmo Campos, professor at the Oceanographic Institute (I) from the University of São Paulo noted 14 drier events and 14 wetter.
"The explanation for this comes from the South Atlantic, which plays a decisive role in knowing whether the El Niño will be 'dry' or 'wet'. In the Atlantic there are a series of important phenomena for the global climate. El Niño doesn't depend on the Atlantic, but, from the relationship between this and the Pacific Ocean, its impacts will be different", said Campos, which coordinates research projects funded by FAPESP, like the “Impact of the South Atlantic on the southern circulation cell and on the climate”.
According to Fields, observations and models indicate that variations in the southern overturn cell (in english Southern Overturning Cell, POWER) are strongly related to major climate change. Until now, most observations have been concentrated in the North Atlantic.
"Nonetheless, studies indicate that the South Atlantic is not a mere passive conductor of water bodies formed in other regions and that changes in the return flow of the MOC in the South Atlantic could significantly impact the regional and global climate”, Campos told FAPESP Agency.
"In this way, a weakened MOC results in a warmer South Atlantic, which may imply more rain in the Brazilian Northeast. El Niño took on a more passive role, while the Atlantic Ocean has a more active role today”, highlighted.
Extreme events
Björn Kjerfve, president from World Maritime University (WMU), in Sweden, emphasizes that the oceans play a preponderant role in any climate change scenario. "The oceans are regulators of the planet's climate. If the Earth's average temperature increases by 1 degree, a certain amount of ice will melt", said Kjerfve at the symposium.
The warming of the South Atlantic resulted in Hurricane Catarina, which reached the southern region of Brazil in March 2004. The warming of the North Atlantic led to the formation of Sandy, that hit the east coast of the United States a few days ago. "Hurricanes have a close relationship to sea temperature. They only occur if the ocean surface temperature is above 26º degrees. Catarina happened because somehow the water temperature was above average", said Campos.
As the trend of warming waters in the South Atlantic persists, Brazil may see the passage of new hurricanes. "On the global average, the amount of rain increased and the temperature of the planet also, but we do not know if this will create favorable conditions for the occurrence of these events", said Campos, remembering that the IPCC reports do not point to a definitive answer on the occurrence of extreme events, like hurricanes.
The hot winter and early cold spring experienced by Brazil in 2012 can mean a natural fit. "We are coming out of a dry period. This is attributed to global warming., which has natural and anthropogenic causes. The human being amplifies the heating. Although, these anomalies cannot be attributed exclusively to anthropic action", said Campos, who coordinates the Pirate Project, cooperation program between Brazil, France and the United States created in 1995 to observe the Atlantic Ocean.
“We know a lot more about the Pacific than about the Atlantic. The most important connection between the ocean and our coast is the tropical region, that is why it is important to monitor the bifurcation region with the equatorial south. the pre-salt, for example, will be affected by phenomena that occur far away", said the IO-USP professor.
“In terms of oceanographic science, we haven't gone far yet. But the first country to undergo direct changes due to variations in the South Atlantic will be Brazil. We are connected with the Atlantic, that's why the country needs to be the reference for studies on the South Atlantic”, said Campos.
By Washington Castilhos, FAPESP Agency.
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