COP 30 in Belém: what has changed in the global climate?

1. From Rio-92 to the first COPs: how it all started

Conferences of the Parties (COPs) are today the center stage of global climate governance. With the COP 30 in Belém recently completed in 2025, It is time to recap the history of these conferences, understand what has really changed in the global climate in terms of agreements and policies, and project the challenges that arise for the next rounds of negotiations.

From 1995, the Parties to the Convention begin to meet annually:

• COP 1 – Berlin (1995): defines the “Berlin Mandate”, recognizing that existing commitments were insufficient and paving the way for stronger targets.
• COP 3 – Kyoto (1997): adopt the Kyoto Protocol, the first climate agreement with legally binding emissions reduction targets for developed countries (average of -5,2% about 1990 no period 2008–2012).

Despite limitations (restricted coverage and absence of some large emitters), Kyoto inaugurated the logic of quantitative targets and market mechanisms (from that, emissions trading) that influence the regime to this day.

2. From major impasses to the Paris Agreement

As the years passed, the COPs gained a political and media dimension. Some milestones:

• COP 15 – Copenhagen (2009)

Seen as an opportunity to seal a major global agreement, ended with a fragile political commitment and strong frustration. Even so, consolidated the goal of 2°C as an international reference.

• COP 21 – Paris (2015)

Turning point. A COP 21 adopt the Paris Agreement, a legally binding global treaty that:

• Sets the goal of keeping warming “well below 2°C”, seeking to limit 1,5°C;
• Enter the NDCs (Nationally Determined Contributions), reviewed periodically;
• Creates a global transparency and review regime (global stocktake).

The Paris Agreement replaces Kyoto’s “top-down” logic with a model “bottom-up” universal, in which all countries present their plans, subject to political pressure and global scrutiny.

3. Glasgow, Sharm El-Sheikh, Dubai e Baku: the road to Belém

In the post-Paris decade, the COPs began to measure less “new treaties” and more implementation and ambition:

• COP 26 – Glasgow (2021): produces the “Glasgow Climate Pact”, with emphasis on the commitment to “gradually reduce” coal use and eliminate inefficient fossil fuel subsidies, in addition to finalizing the Paris Agreement rulebook (Article 6, between others).
• COP 27 – Sharm El-Sheikh (2022): A major milestone is the creation of the Loss and Damage Fund, to support vulnerable countries facing irreversible climate impacts.
• COP 28 – Dubai (2023): The so-called “Emirati Consensus” is the first COP decision to explicitly speak of “transitioning away from fossil fuels” our energy systems, pointing to the beginning of the end of the fossil era – although without decreeing a complete “phase-out”.
• COP 29 – Baku (2024): nicknamed “COP of Financing”, adopt a new quantified collective objective (NCQG) for the climate, tripling the funding target for developing countries to US$ 300 billion/year until 2035, with the aspiration to mobilize US$ 1,3 trillion/year from all sources. It also advances carbon market rules (Article 6), but leaves crucial mitigation decisions to the COP 30.

It is in this context of pressure for more mitigation, more funding and more climate justice that surge has COP 30 in Belém.

4. COP 30 in Belém: what have been the gains so far?

A COP 30 in Belém became symbolic because it occurs in the heart of the Amazon, key region for global climate stability. It resulted in the so-called “Bethlehem Package”, approved by 195 Parties.

Among the main gains so far, stand out:

4.1 Consolidation of the adaptation and justice agenda

• political commitment of triple adaptation funding, aligning the goal of US$ 120 billion/year until 2035 with the NCQG set in Baku, although the details of sources and timeline remain fragile.
• Creating a Just Transition Mechanism (Just Transition Mechanism) don’t omitted by UNFCCC, aimed at supporting workers and communities in the transition to low-carbon economies – albeit without guaranteed dedicated resources.

4.2 Expanded multilateralism and climate “collective effort”

• O “Bethlehem Package” emphasizes a “global effort” of implementation, reinforcing the role of city coalitions, states, companies and civil society in delivering the Paris goals.
• Global climate action decisions (Global Climate Action) value sectoral plans, public-private partnerships and non-state initiatives, consolidating the idea that the success of the Paris Agreement depends on much more than national governments.

4.3 Tropical forests and indigenous people in the center

• Launch of Tropical Forests Forever Facility, with billions of dollars in pledges to protect tropical forests through payments linked to conservation and restoration.
• Reinforced recognition of the role of indigenous peoples and traditional communities, including advances in demarcations in Brazil and greater political visibility of the Amazon and other tropical forests.

4.4 Gains and limits in the fossil fuel agenda

Here is one of the most controversial points in COP 30 in Belém:

• The pressure of more than 80 countries for a global fossil fuel transition roadmap did not appear in the official text, due to resistance from large oil and gas producers.
• In response, Brazil, Colombia and other countries announced a voluntary fossil transition plan and a specific conference on the topic for 2026, outside the formal COP umbrella.

In short: of COP 30 in Belém kept the Paris Agreement alive, strengthened adaptation and the role of forests and just transition, but retreated from expected ambition in fossil fuels, creating a gap between science and politics.

5. Challenges for the next COPs (COP 31 and beyond)

The balance of COP 30 in Belém shows important advances, but also exposes a series of challenges for upcoming conferences:

1. Put fossils back at the center of official decisions
   • After Dubai recognized for the first time the need to “transition away from fossil fuels”, the silence about fossils in Belém creates a feeling of regression. Next COPs will need to resume the discussion on phase-out vs. phase-down, aligning commitments with the remaining carbon budget.
2. Transform financial promises into real flow of resources
   • The Baku NCQG and the adaptation goals in Belém still lack clear mobilization mechanisms, additionality and transparency criteria, and a fairer balance between loans and grants for developing countries.
3. Closing the mitigation gap by 2030–2035
   • The first global stocktake showed that current NDCs still put the world on a trajectory above 2°C. The next COPs will have to push for NDCs 2035 more robust, with sectoral goals (energy, transport, industry, land use) and concrete implementation plans.
4. Reliability of carbon markets and the Article 6
   • With the advancement of rules in Baku, The challenge now is to ensure environmental and social integrity two carbon markets, avoiding double counting, low quality credits and greenwashing.
5. Climate integration, trade and industrial transition
   • The debate over carbon tariffs, global value chains and green industrial policies will gain weight in the next COPs. The implementation of Belém Package will require articulation with trade agendas, investment and technological innovation.
6. Protect the Amazon and other biomes in a scenario of multiple crises
   • For Brazil, The challenge is to transform the symbolic protagonism of COP 30 in Belém in concrete zero deforestation policies, bioeconomy and social inclusion in the Amazon, under a scenario of internal political pressures and organized environmental crime.

6. Conclusion: COP 30 in Belém as a crossroads

The history of COPs shows a clear movement: from small technical meetings to mega political events that define, to a large extent, the direction of the global climate transition.

A COP 30 in Belém It wasn't the transformative break many expected, but consolidated advances in adaptation, climate justice, tropical forests and expanded multilateralism. At the same time, exposed the limits of a system that has not yet managed to align the speed of politics with the urgency of science.

At the next COPs, success will be measured less by speeches in plenary and more by the ability to deliver real emissions reductions, financing at scale and effective protection of people and ecosystems. Belém’s legacy will be defined by what the world does – or doesn’t do – from now on.

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