When released there is almost 50 years old, Some economists have considered the conclusions of The limits of growth (The Limits to Growth, in English) as “irresponsibly absurd”, while others criticized the validity of the model the authors had used to predict energy consumption., pollution and population growth. A revisitation of the report shows that we face the same dilemmas today and that the main conclusions of the original study are still valid.. Below, article of Quirin Schiermeier, published in the magazine Nature.
On the eve of one of the most notable economic shocks of the 20th century – the 1973 oil crisis – an influential group of researchers released a report that has become iconic., entitledThe Limits to Growth, or Limits of Growth.
The work, which received great attention and proved controversial, painted a bleak picture of the future of humanity. Economic and population growth would deplete the planet's resources and cause economic collapse before 2070.
More than four decades later, the main conclusions of the report are still valid., according to a group of independent researchers who updated the work using more sophisticated analytical tools. As well as the report of 1972, the latest work was commissioned by the Club of Rome, a group of liberal scientists, economists and politicians who this year celebrate the fiftieth anniversary of its founding in 1968.
The update, released on 17 October in Rome for the club's anniversary, makes serious reading. Scenarios business as usual or accelerated economic growth indicate that the world will not be able to achieve sustainable development goals (ODS) of the United Nations – a set of social goals, environmental and prosperity for 2030 – the authors conclude.
Even if governments substantially reinforce “conventional” policies to meet the social goals of the SDGs – such as eradicating poverty and hunger and obtaining quality education for all –, run the risk of not achieving environmental goals.
"There is a high risk of pushing Earth's life support systems beyond points of no return by 2050", complete the report.
“It is very disturbing to see that we are still facing the same dilemma that the Club of Rome described almost 50 years old", diz Julia Steinberger, University of Leeds expert in ecological economics, not UK.
environmental SDGs into oblivion?
The original report was a quantitative analysis based on a computer model that calculated likely future outcomes for the world economy.. Criticism focused mainly on the authors' assumptions about the expected duration of natural resources..
Some economists considered the book's pessimistic conclusions as "absurdly irresponsible", while others criticized the validity of the model – World3, sophisticated at the time – which the authors had used to predict energy consumption, pollution and population growth.
The latest version of the report – by researchers at the Stockholm Resilience Center in Sweden and the Norwegian Business School in Oslo – used a model of the earth system that combines socioeconomic and biophysical variables., along with a wealth of new historical and socio-economic data, to draw your conclusions. This model, whose elements interact with the passage of time, is much more robust, says Steinberger.
Researchers found that, by the current carriage floor, the world is on its way to just reaching 10 From 17 ODS until 2030.
If conventional tools are used to achieve social SDGs, these efforts will be made at the expense of unsustainable exploitation of natural resources., like water, alone and energy. That is why, the environmental goals, including stabilizing the weather, reduce pollution and maintain biodiversity, threaten to fall by the wayside, they say.
To prevent human civilization from suffering more environmental damage than it would be able to withstand, the authors urge world leaders to consider more policies they deem unconventional.
Only more extreme economic and behavioral changes than are currently in place will allow the world to achieve all 17 ODS junctions, say the authors.
These policies can include immediate transformation of energy systems, greater use of family planning to stabilize populations and actively encourage a more balanced distribution of wealth, so that the 10% richer don't get more than 40% of the income.
The report is a justification for the Club of Rome's initial vision and a welcome alternative to the dominant economy's focus on growth and balance., says Steinberger.
"Most of the original Limits to Growth conclusions are still true", these Johan Rockström, a sustainability researcher and report co-author, in Stockholm. "This is scientifically satisfying, but for societies it is not.”
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