IPCC report confirms that changes must be immediate for zero emissions
There are approximately 3 months of the most anticipated meeting of the year in Scotland, for COP-26, o IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) released this monday, 09 of August, of SPM (Summary for Policymaker) of group 1 with the sixth evaluation report (AR6 – Sixth Assessment Report).
As in previous editions, the summary retains its originality of informing each nation's governments and decision makers, summarizing the main technical conclusions of the reports. Reflecting the scientific consensus and the most accepted studies in the literature.
The conclusions are the result of two years of work by 103 experts of 52 countries, who voluntarily participated in the study. According to the report released by the IPCC, reducing deforestation and degradation has the potential to mitigate even 5,8 billion tons of CO2 per year worldwide. Brazil, which has the largest rainforest on the planet, can account for an important part of the reduction.
The report's predictions
In its entirety, the publication points out that human action has warmed the climate system. In addition to the fact that climate changes are already occurring across the planet in an accelerated and widespread manner. It is noteworthy that the temperature over the continents was, average, of 1.59 ° C, between the years of 2011 a 2020.
IPCC scientists have shown that ocean levels have risen dramatically due to climate change. Being 20 cm in a century approximately, with an expressive jump of 3.7mm between the years of 2006 a 2018.
The text mentions that “CO2 concentrations, CH4 e N2O, the three main greenhouse gases mixed in the atmosphere, are the biggest in 800 a thousand years".
in parallel, the Climate Observatory highlights that global temperature has risen faster since 1970 than in any other period of 50 years in the last two millennia. The temperatures since 2011 exceed those of the last hot period(near 6.500 years ago) and match those of the previous hot period(125 thousand years ago), when the Greenland ice sheet almost completely disappeared.
The AR6 has a new series of emission scenarios, the CMIP6 (acronym for “Climate Models Intercomparison Project Version 6), there are five scenarios, two low emission (SSP1-1.9 and SSP1-2.6), one of medium emissions (SSP2-4.5) and two high emissions (SSP3-7 e SSP5-8.5).
With this new classification, the ambitious limit of the Paris Agreement (COP 21) of 1.5 ° C , must be surpassed between 2021 e 2040, it is virtually certain that each additional increase in global warming brings greater changes in extreme events.
Every extra half degree of heating increases the frequency of heat waves, storms and droughts affecting agriculture. Even with global warming stabilized at 1.5°C, extreme events unprecedented in the historical record are expected to happen.
Paris Agreement IPCC
The report points out that, if global warming exceeds the 2º Celsius limit established in the Paris Agreement, probably the fertile lands will turn into deserts. Infrastructure will crumble as permafrost melts – a type of soil found in the Arctic region, land, permanently frozen ice and rocks -, and drought and extreme weather events will put the food system at risk.
The authors emphasize that the recommendations could help governments prevent the worst harm., reducing pressure on land and making food systems more sustainable, while meeting the needs of a growing population.
Brazil and the Amazon Region
In South America, highlighting the Amazon region in the Brazilian Midwest, Bolivia and Peru, will show the biggest temperature increases on the hottest days of the year, up to twice the rate of global warming. While the Arctic must have the highest temperature rise on the coldest days of the year, about three times the heating rate.
The summary emphasizes that global warming will surpass 1.5°c before the middle of the century, but which can be reduced below that by the end of the century with immediate ambitious action. Such actions are limited to reducing the human impact on the climate to a single tolerable emission level, the zero emission one.
You can check theReport in English here.The IPCC also disclosed in an innovative and dynamic way the information on trello,that you can access here!
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