Climate phenomenon returns to the global radar and increases attention from the agricultural sector
The possible return of an intense El Niño event in 2026 already starting to mobilize meteorologists, researchers and the agricultural sector in different parts of the world.
In the last few weeks, projections from international institutions such as the World Meteorological Organization (OMM) and centers linked to NOAA (United States Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) began to indicate an increase in the probability of formation of a new El Niño episode throughout the second half of 2026.
Although there is still uncertainty about its final intensity, Some climate models already indicate the possibility of a moderate to strong event — a scenario that could have relevant impacts on Brazilian agribusiness.
Or what he or El Niño?
El Niño is a natural climate phenomenon characterized by the abnormal warming of the waters of the Equatorial Pacific Ocean.
This warming changes global atmospheric patterns, influencing:
• rainfall regimes;
• temperatures;
• occurrence of droughts;
• extreme events;
• agricultural dynamics in different regions of the planet.
According to the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), the phenomenon can directly affect food security and agricultural productivity due to climate change caused in different producing regions.
Why is there concern about 2026?
In April of 2026, the World Meteorological Organization warned of the increased likelihood of typical El Niño conditions forming between May and July.
Furthermore, experimental projections linked to NOAA indicate a high chance of the phenomenon strengthening throughout the second half of the year, which may reach moderate or strong intensity by the end of the year.
Although some experts avoid the term “Super El Niño” at this time, the increase in temperature in the Pacific has been closely monitored by the global climate market.
Possible impacts on Brazilian agriculture
The effects of El Niño vary depending on the intensity of the event and the region of the country. Historically, the phenomenon usually causes important changes in the behavior of rainfall and temperatures in Brazil.
Among the main potential impacts for agriculture are:
South of Brazil: excess rain
Southern states tend to record an increase in the volume of precipitation, increasing risks such as:
• flooding;
• soil erosion;
• operational difficulty in the field;
• delay in planting and harvesting;
• increase in fungal diseases.
Cultures like soy, corn and wheat may suffer significant impacts depending on the duration of the event.
Midwest and Matopiba: heat and water irregularity
In some producing regions in the Center-West and Matopiba, o El Niño can favor:
• drier periods;
• hot flashes;
• irregularity in the rainfall regime;
• water stress in crops.
These factors can affect productivity, agricultural management and planning.
Pressure on costs and management
More unstable climate scenarios also tend to increase:
• operating costs;
• need for climate monitoring;
• demand for risk management;
• volatility in production.
Furthermore, extreme events can generate logistical and commercial impacts throughout the production chain.
Sustainability and climate adaptation gain prominence
Faced with increasingly unpredictable climate scenarios, topics such as sustainability, traceability and climate adaptation are no longer just trends and become part of management strategies in agriculture.
Companies and producers that invest in:
• climate monitoring;
• operational planning;
• sustainable management;
• risk analysis;
• regenerative practices.
They tend to increase their ability to adapt to climate fluctuations.
More than responding to extreme events, the challenge becomes building more resilient production systems.
The moment demands attention, non-alarmism
Despite climate warnings, experts reinforce that long-term forecasts still have a margin of uncertainty.
Not every El Niño event produces the same impacts, and the effects can vary greatly between regions and cultures.
Even so, the advancement of projections reinforces the importance of continuous climate monitoring and strategic planning for the agricultural sector.
In a scenario of global climate change, adaptation and anticipation can become increasingly relevant competitive differentiators for Brazilian agriculture.
How agriculture can prepare for more extreme climate scenarios?
The possibility of a new intense El Niño event reinforces the importance of climate risk management and sustainability in agribusiness.
Beyond climate monitoring, companies in the sector have been investing more and more in traceability, environmental management, ESG indicators and socio-environmental compliance to increase the resilience of operations in the face of more unstable scenarios.
biO3 works to develop solutions aimed at sustainability, traceability and environmental management applied to agribusiness and bioenergy, supporting companies in adapting to new market demands and climate challenges.
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