El Niño returned to the spotlight in 2026 e, this time, with signs that it can reach exceptional intensity. In your most recent update, published in 13 of August, the United States National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) points out more than 90% probability of a very strong El Niño between October and December 2026. For the same period, there is 69% probability that the phenomenon will reach historically high levels. (NOAA – ENSO Diagnostic Discussion, 2026).
The scenario deserves attention not only because of the possible impacts on agriculture, but also due to the effects on water resources, ecosystems, infrastructure, energy, logistics and supply chains. For companies, the phenomenon reinforces an important trend: Climate events also need to be treated as risks to business continuity and resilience.
A phenomenon, different impacts
El Niño occurs when there is an abnormal warming of surface waters in the equatorial Pacific, changing atmospheric circulation patterns, temperature and precipitation in different regions of the planet.
No brazil, its effects are not uniform. Current projections indicate a greater probability of above-average rainfall in the South, while parts of the North and Northeast may face hotter and drier conditions. These projections represent trends and probabilities, and do not exactly determine the climate of each location.
This regional difference is precisely one of the points of attention: while some regions can handle excess water, others may face shortages and greater environmental stress.
The main environmental risks
Water stress and reduction in river levels
Changing water availability is among the main risks associated with the phenomenon.
in the Amazon, the combination between El Niño, High temperatures and less precipitation can contribute to lower river levels. This affects not only transport and supply, but also aquatic ecosystems and communities that depend on rivers.
For ecosystems, Reducing water availability can increase stress on habitats and species and increase the vulnerability of natural areas.
Greater risk of fires
High temperatures combined with low humidity and precipitation deficits also increase vulnerability to fires.
in the Amazon, studies on the dry period associated with El Niño of 2023–2024 identified an increase in burned areas and warnings of forest degradation, highlighting how periods of climate stress can worsen pressure on already vulnerable ecosystems (FAPESP – Longer droughts and changes in rainfall are already occurring in the Amazon, 2026).
Although the impacts of 2026 cannot yet be determined, the scenario reinforces the need for monitoring and prevention.
Intense rains, floods and erosion
In the south of Brazil, the scenario tends to be different. The greater probability of above-average precipitation may favor episodes of intense rain, increasing flood risks, erosion, silting up, landslides and damage to infrastructure.
Excess water can also favor the transport of sediments and contaminants into water bodies, expanding environmental impacts.
Thus, the same climate phenomenon can generate opposite environmental risks in different regions.
When climate risk reaches companies
The impacts of El Niño do not need to occur directly within a company to generate economic consequences.
An organization may depend on suppliers, highways, waterways, energy or natural resources located in vulnerable regions. Reuters highlights, for example, the risk of lower levels of Amazon rivers affecting transport, while excessive rains in the South could damage roads and infrastructure.
The chain of impacts can be summarized as:
weather event → environmental impact → operational disruption → increased costs → financial risk.
Water resources
For companies that depend on water in their production processes, changes in water availability can affect water capture, production, cooling, cleaning and other industrial processes.
Funding restrictions may also arise, changes in water quality, greater competition for the resource and need for alternative sources of supply.
That is why, Knowing the availability and vulnerability of water resources in a region is an important part of environmental and operational risk management.
Energy
The energy sector may also be affected by changes in the rainfall regime.
In regions where hydroelectric generation plays a relevant role, changes in water availability can alter generation conditions. At the same time, Different regions may present different effects depending on the distribution of rainfall.
For companies, This reinforces the importance of assessing the energy dependence and vulnerability of operations to climate events.
Infrastructure and operational continuity
Industrial facilities, drainage systems, roads, bridges, ports and storage structures are also exposed to extreme events.
Heavy rains can cause flooding and physical damage, while periods of drought can compromise water supply and the navigability of rivers.
In this context, the climate issue is no longer just environmental and becomes part of business continuity management.
The risk is also in the value chain
Climate exposure does not end at the company’s physical boundaries.
Suppliers may be located in regions subject to drought or excessive rainfall, while carriers may rely on vulnerable highways or waterways. Customers may also suffer impacts that change their demand or operating capacity.
That is why, Assessing climate risks only within your own facilities can generate an incomplete view of business vulnerability.
A more comprehensive assessment should consider operations, Providers, infrastructure, natural resources and strategic regions of the value chain.
From climate monitoring to risk management
The strengthening of El Niño does not mean that all companies will suffer the same impacts. It means organizations can start to assess where they are exposed and what measures can reduce their vulnerability.
Some issues are strategic:
- Which processes depend directly on water resources?
- Which units are exposed to drought, floods or fires?
- Which suppliers and logistics routes are in vulnerable regions?
- What environmental impacts can occur during extreme events?
- There are contingency and adaptation plans?
Transforming this information into action plans allows climate monitoring to stop being just monitoring forecasts and become part of business risk management.
Preparation is part of business resilience
Or The Child of 2026 still represents a scenario of probabilities, and its regional impacts may vary over the next few months. Nonetheless, strengthening projections is enough to justify a preventive stance.
More than trying to predict exactly where each extreme event will occur, companies can work on identifying their vulnerabilities, in assessing the resources on which they depend and defining adaptation measures.
Monitoring the weather is just the first step. Transforming this information into risk management is what allows you to increase business resilience.
How biO3 can support your company
biO3 acts in the integration between the environment, sustainability and business management, with solutions related to risk management, water resources, biodiversity, supply chain and sustainability indicators.
In this context, Events such as El Niño can be incorporated into the environmental and strategic assessment of organizations, allowing you to identify vulnerabilities, understand possible impacts and structure prevention and adaptation measures.
Anticipating environmental risks is also a way to protect operations, resources and the future of business.