According to Embrapa, the country will need more than biodiesel and ethanol to have 18% from the energy matrix to 2030
Brazil will need more than biodiesel and ethanol to have 18% from the energy matrix based on biofuels to 2030, how it committed to the Paris Agreement. Analyzes made by Embrapa Agroenergia indicate that, in the most feasible optimistic scenario, these two products could account for, no maximum, 12,3% of the total energy that the country would need from now on 13 years old.
The researcher Bruno Galvêas Laviola, of Embrapa Agroenergy, explains that the text of the contribution established by Brazil (iNDC) it is not clear whether bioelectricity is included in the target – generated by burning sugarcane bagasse, for example.
Nonetheless, if included, there will be no gains that contribute to reducing the country's greenhouse gas emissions in 43%, how was the government committed. This because, currently, bioenergy as a whole already accounts for much more than 18% of the national energy matrix. The challenge would be to reach this index with vehicle fuels and others, as biogas. "It's an audacious goal, if only current biofuels are considered", says Laviola.
According to a statement from Embrapa, considering the sector's estimates for the growth in the supply of ethanol, the most consolidated fuel in the country, the team calculated how much it would need to increase the production and use of biodiesel to meet the target.
In a first scenario, with ethanol growing 5,1% per year, the amount of biodiesel added to diesel would have to rise to 69%, which would require installing more 395 plants - currently, the mixture is from 9% and there is 43 plants in Brazil.
Even if the ethanol growth rate was double, it would still be necessary to reach 48% biodiesel not diesel and build 267 new industries so that the two biofuels, together, answer for 18% of the national energy matrix.
Investments in raw materials
In addition to the high investment, the unavailability of raw materials and the need to adapt engines make such an increase in the mix of biodiesel and diesel unfeasible. raw material is, surely, an important bottleneck.
Since the beginning of the biodiesel program in Brazil, soy oil accounts for something between 70% e 80% of the total raw materials used by the industry, since it is the only oilseed with a production scale sufficient to serve a sector that needs large volumes of inputs.
Biodiesel
The most feasible growth scenario for the biodiesel is to reach a mixture of 15% in 2030, what would require the oil of 35% of the Brazilian soybean crop. But it also carries a big challenge.. Today, only 41% of grain production is crushed in the country, being 15% of the oil obtained for the biodiesel plants.
the others 59% are exported in natura and constitute one of the main items in the Brazilian export basket that balances the trade balance. "The increase in soybean crushing in the country for biodiesel would have a direct impact on the international trade of the grain", Laviola scores.
Coming to the mix of 15%, biodiesel could answer for 3,7% of the Brazilian energy matrix. Even if ethanol grew twice as expected, still missing 5,7% for the two fuels to meet the defined goal on their own.
Increase the biodiesel blend to 20% would require, However, consume the oil of almost 50% of soy harvested in the country in 2030, which would hardly be feasible. "In the case of biodiesel, if there is no diversification of raw materials, with production scale, it will be difficult to increase the mixture to levels above 15%", alert.
Biokerosene for airplanes
A new green fuel that could help the country meet its Paris commitment is biokerosene for aircraft.
The international airline industry has goals to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and, No brazil, There are initiatives to promote the supply of biomass derivatives, like the Minas platform and the Pernambuco platform.
Biogas is another fuel with a lot of potential, mainly because you enjoy waste - from 2015 for 2016 grown up 46,2%.